OPEC said on Monday that it expects the money markets to remain buoyant in the latter half of this year. It made a downward revision in its projection for the amount of oil that the US and places outside the great OPEC+ grouping will produce in 2026. In its monthly report, which did not discuss the havoc from Israel and Iran, OPEC kept its view for world oil demand for 2025 and 2026 unchanged after having lowered these views in April.
A firm money scene uninjured by trade fights or by oil-making cuts outside OPEC+—which is basically a clique of OPEC, Russia, and others—would really go a long way in helping OPEC+ control the world oil. Massive oil production from US shale and other lands had previously led to a price downturn. "Contrary to our expectations, the world economy has done better in the first half of 2025," said OPEC in its report.
"Such a good start in 2025 should help keep the momentum strong through the second half of 2025. However, as the years progress, the pace at which this growth will ascend might just slow down," it added. Oil prices rocketed on Friday, making their way toward $80 a barrel, after air strikes by Israel in Iran sparked fears over oil flow from that region. It happened as oil prices had been falling due to more oil from OPEC+ and because US President Donald Trump put new costs on things that come from other places.
OPEC+ wants to raise production rather fast during May, June, and July. The idea is to outpace U.S. shale oil and vie to recover their place in the market. In 2026, oil coming from places not in their group will be raised by 730,000 barrels a day. That is 70,000 barrels less than what they had speculated last month.
Now, OPEC thinks that shale oil in the United States will remain at 9.05 million barrels a day next year, while previously they believed it was going to develop a little each year. Last January, OPEC presumed it was going to reach 9.28 million barrels a day by 2026. "In 2026, we think money care, better drilling, slow drilling work, and more gas making in key places will hold," added OPEC with reference to shale oil.